Sydney
Sam Neill Inspired a Generation of Scientists
The actor, who died at age 78 on Monday, embodied a passionate approach to research and positive masculinity in his role as paleontologist Alan Grant in the 1993 blockbuster . Sam Neill, the New Zealand actor who died at age 78 in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, had a long and varied résumé. He played everyone from an international spy () and a detective chief inspector () to a legendary wizard (). He even played the literal spawn of the devil (). But throughout his career, Neill was also known for scientist roles in films like and, with none more celebrated than Dr. Alan Grant, the rugged paleontologist and undisputed hero of .
Bumblebee facial movements give clues to their inner lives
Bees seem to show when they are pleased and like something, rather than just needing it, in one of the strongest signs yet that insects have subjective experiences. In recent decades, it has become clear that bees are capable of more complex behaviours than we previously thought, such as counting and demonstrating a sense of rhythm . But discerning whether they have inner states akin to our emotions is more difficult. For one thing, insects don't have the flexible facial musculature of mammals, which we use to communicate our feelings. "How can we get any behavioural readout of these insects with a hard body and their mask of a face," asks Andrew Barron at Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia.
Microsoft and Meta announce large staff reductions as they spend big on AI
Meta and Microsoft are trimming their workforces by thousands as they make heavy investments in AI and executives claim that the technology is meeting their companies' productivity needs. Meta told staff on Thursday that on 20 May it would cut some 10% of its personnel - just under 8,000 employees-to boost efficiency, part of a layoff plan made months ago . The company is also closing about 6,000 open roles. The same day, Microsoft announced to employees, for the first time, that it would offer voluntary retirement to about 7% of its American workforce of roughly 125,000. In an internal memo to Meta's staff, Janelle Gale, the chief people officer, didn't mention AI explicitly but said the cuts would allow the company to "offset the other investments we're making".
Time Series Gaussian Chain Graph Models
Fang, Qin, Qiao, Xinghao, Wang, Zihan
Time series graphical models have recently received considerable attention for characterizing (conditional) dependence structures in multivariate time series. In many applications, the multivariate series exhibit variable-partitioned blockwise dependence, with distinct patterns within and across blocks. In this paper, we introduce a new class of time series Gaussian chain graph models that represent contemporaneous and lagged causal relations via directed edges across blocks, while capturing within-block conditional dependencies through undirected edges. In the frequency domain, this formulation induces a cross-frequency shared group sparse plus group low-rank decomposition of the inverse spectral density matrices, which we exploit to establish identifiability of the time series chain graph structure. Building on this, we then propose a three-stage learning procedure for estimating the undirected and directed edge sets, which involves optimizing a regularized Whittle likelihood with a group lasso penalty to encourage group sparsity and a novel tensor-unfolding nuclear norm penalty to enforce group low-rank structure. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed method, ensuring its consistency for exact recovery of the chain graph structure. The superior empirical performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through both extensive simulation studies and an application to U.S. macroeconomic data that highlights key monetary policy transmission mechanisms.
The Generalised Kernel Covariance Measure
Bergen, Luca, Sejdinovic, Dino, Didelez, Vanessa
We consider the problem of conditional independence (CI) testing and adopt a kernel-based approach. Kernel-based CI tests embed variables in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, regress their embeddings on the conditioning variables, and test the resulting residuals for marginal independence. This approach yields tests that are sensitive to a broad range of conditional dependencies. Existing methods, however, rely heavily on kernel ridge regression, which is computationally expensive when properly tuned and yields poorly calibrated tests when left untuned, which limits their practical usefulness. We propose the Generalised Kernel Covariance Measure (GKCM), a regression-model-agnostic kernel-based CI test that accommodates a broad class of regression estimators. Building on the Generalised Hilbertian Covariance Measure framework (Lundborg et al., 2022), we characterise conditions under which GKCM satisfies uniform asymptotic level guarantees. In simulations, GKCM paired with tree-based regression models frequently outperforms state-of-the-art CI tests across a diverse range of data-generating processes, achieving better type I error control and competitive or superior power.
Inversion-Free Natural Gradient Descent on Riemannian Manifolds
Draca, Dario, Matsubara, Takuo, Tran, Minh-Ngoc
The natural gradient method is widely used in statistical optimization, but its standard formulation assumes a Euclidean parameter space. This paper proposes an inversion-free stochastic natural gradient method for probability distributions whose parameters lie on a Riemannian manifold. The manifold setting offers several advantages: one can implicitly enforce parameter constraints such as positive definiteness and orthogonality, ensure parameters are identifiable, or guarantee regularity properties of the objective like geodesic convexity. Building on an intrinsic formulation of the Fisher information matrix (FIM) on a manifold, our method maintains an online approximation of the inverse FIM, which is efficiently updated at quadratic cost using score vectors sampled at successive iterates. In the Riemannian setting, these score vectors belong to different tangent spaces and must be combined using transport operations. We prove almost-sure convergence rates of $O(\log{s}/s^α)$ for the squared distance to the minimizer when the step size exponent $α>2/3$. We also establish almost-sure rates for the approximate FIM, which now accumulates transport-based errors. A limited-memory variant of the algorithm with sub-quadratic storage complexity is proposed. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method relative to its Euclidean counterparts on variational Bayes with Gaussian approximations and normalizing flows.
Complete Causal Identification from Ancestral Graphs under Selection Bias
Many causal discovery algorithms, including the celebrated FCI algorithm, output a Partial Ancestral Graph (PAG). PAGs serve as an abstract graphical representation of the underlying causal structure, modeled by directed acyclic graphs with latent and selection variables. This paper develops a characterization of the set of extended-type conditional independence relations that are invariant across all causal models represented by a PAG. This theory allows us to formulate a general measure-theoretic version of Pearl's causal calculus and a sound and complete identification algorithm for PAGs under selection bias. Our results also apply when PAGs are learned by certain algorithms that integrate observational data with experimental data and incorporate background knowledge.
SymCircuit: Bayesian Structure Inference for Tractable Probabilistic Circuits via Entropy-Regularized Reinforcement Learning
Probabilistic circuit (PC) structure learning is hampered by greedy algorithms that make irreversible, locally optimal decisions. We propose SymCircuit, which replaces greedy search with a learned generative policy trained via entropy-regularized reinforcement learning. Instantiating the RL-as-inference framework in the PC domain, we show the optimal policy is a tempered Bayesian posterior, recovering the exact posterior when the regularization temperature is set inversely proportional to the dataset size. The policy is implemented as SymFormer, a grammar-constrained autoregressive Transformer with tree-relative self-attention that guarantees valid circuits at every generation step. We introduce option-level REINFORCE, restricting gradient updates to structural decisions rather than all tokens, yielding an SNR (signal to noise ratio) improvement and >10 times sample efficiency gain on the NLTCS dataset. A three-layer uncertainty decomposition (structural via model averaging, parametric via the delta method, leaf via conjugate Dirichlet-Categorical propagation) is grounded in the multilinear polynomial structure of PC outputs. On NLTCS, SymCircuit closes 93% of the gap to LearnSPN; preliminary results on Plants (69 variables) suggest scalability.